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Quantitative risk analysis using vulnerability indicators to assess food insecurity in the Niayes agricultural region of West Senegal

Mateugue Diack, Macoumba Loum, Cheikh T. Diop, Ailsa Holloway

Jàmbá: Journal of Disaster Risk Studies; Vol 9, No 1 (2017), 8 pages. doi: 10.4102/jamba.v9i1.379

Submitted: 06 October 2016
Published:  30 November 2017


There is an increasing need to develop indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity to determine the robustness of response strategies over time and better understand the underlying processes. This study aimed to determine levels of risk of food insecurity using defined vulnerability indicators. For the purpose of this study, factors influencing food insecurity and different vulnerable indicators were examined using quantitative and qualitative research methods. Observations made on the physical environment (using tools for spatial analysis) and socio-economic surveys conducted with local populations have quantified vulnerability indicators in the Niayes agricultural region. Application of the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) model has enabled us to quantify the level of vulnerability of the zone. The results show that the decrease in agricultural surface areas is the most discriminant one in this study. The speed of reduction of the agricultural areas has specially increased between 2009 and 2014, with a loss of 65% of these areas. Therefore, a decision-making system, centred on the need for reinforcing the resilience of local populations, by preserving the agricultural vocation of the Niayes region and even in the Sahelian regions requires support and extension services for the farmers in order to promote sustainable agricultural practices.

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Author affiliations

Mateugue Diack, UFR des Sciences Agronomiques, de l’Aquaculture et des Technologies Alimentaires, Université Gaston Berger, Senegal
Macoumba Loum, UFR des Sciences Agronomiques, de l’Aquaculture et des Technologies Alimentaires, Université Gaston Berger, Senegal
Cheikh T. Diop, UFR des Sciences Appliquées et Technologies, Université Gaston Berger, Senegal
Ailsa Holloway, Research Alliance for Disaster and Risk Reduction, Stellenbosch University, South Africa


food insecurity; risk; vulnerability; indicators; resilience


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ISSN: 1996-1421 (print) | ISSN: 2072-845X (online)

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